Is Affordability Starting To Improve?

Over the past couple of years, a lot of people have had a hard time buying a home. And while affordability is still tight, there are signs it's getting a little better and might keep improving throughout the rest of the year. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says: “Housing affordability is improving ever so modestly, but it is moving in the right direction.” Here’s a look at the latest data on the three biggest factors affecting home affordability: mortgage rates, home prices, and wages.  1. Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates have been volatile this year, bouncing around from the mid-6% to low 7% range. But there's some good news. Data from Freddie Mac shows rates have been trending down overall since May (see graph below): Mortgage rates have improved lately in part because of recent economic, employment, and inflation data. Moving forward, some rate volatility is to be expected. But if future economic data continues to show signs of cooling, experts say mortgage rates could keep going down.  Even a small drop can help you out. When rates decline, it's easier to afford the home you want because your monthly payment will be lower. Just don’t expect them to go back down to 3%. 2. Home Prices The second big thing to think about is home prices. Nationally, they’re still going up this year, but not as fast as they did a couple of years ago. The graph below uses home price data from Case-Shiller to illustrate that point: If you're thinking about buying a home, slower price growth is good news. Home prices went up a lot during the pandemic, making it hard for many people to buy. Now, with prices rising more slowly, buying a home may feel less out of reach. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says:  “While housing affordability is low for potential first-time home buyers, slowing price appreciation and lower mortgage rates could help – so the dream of homeownership isn’t boarded up just yet.” 3. Wages Another factor helping with affordability is rising wages. The graph below uses data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to show how wages have increased over time: Look at the blue dotted line. It shows how wages usually go up in a typical year. On the right side of the graph, you'll see wages are rising even faster than normal right now – that's the green line. This helps you because if your income increases, it's easier to afford a home. That’s because you won't have to spend as much of your paycheck on your monthly mortgage payment. Bottom Line When you put all these factors together, you see mortgage rates are trending down, home prices are rising more slowly, and wages are going up faster than usual. Though affordability is still a challenge, these trends are early signs things might be starting to improve.  

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Are Home Prices Going To Come Down?

Today’s headlines and news stories about home prices are confusing and make it tough to know what’s really happening. Some say home prices are heading for a correction, but what do the facts say? Well, it helps to start by looking at what a correction means. Here’s what Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, says:  “In stock market terms, a correction is generally referred to as a 10 to 20% drop in prices . . . We don't have the same established definitions in the housing market.” In the context of today’s housing market, it doesn’t mean home prices are going to fall dramatically. It only means prices, which have been increasing rapidly over the last couple years, are normalizing a bit. In other words, they’re now growing at a slower pace. Prices vary a lot by local market, but rest assured, a big drop off isn’t what’s happening at a national level. The Real Estate Market Is Normalizing From 2020 to 2022, home prices skyrocketed. That rapid increase was due to high demand, low interest rates, and a shortage of homes for sale. But, that kind of aggressive growth couldn’t continue forever. Today, price growth has started to slow down, which is a sign the market is beginning to normalize. The most recent data from Case-Shiller shows that after being basically flat for a couple of months last year, prices are going up at a national level – just not as quickly as before (see graph below): The big takeaway? So far this year, there’s been a much healthier pace of price growth compared to the pandemic. Of course, that’s what’s happening now, but you may be wondering what’s next for prices. Marco Santarelli, the Founder of Norada Real Estate Investments, says: “Expert forecasts lean towards a moderation in home price growth over the next five years. This translates to a slower and more sustainable pace of appreciation compared to the breakneck speed witnessed in recent years, rather than a freefall in prices.” It’s all about supply and demand. Increasing inventory plus limited buyer demand, due to relatively high mortgage rates, will continue to ease some of the upward pressure on prices.  What This Means for You  If you’re thinking about buying a home, slowing price growth is welcome news. Skyrocketing home prices during the pandemic left many would-be homebuyers feeling priced-out.  While it’s still a good thing to know the value of the home you buy will likely continue to go up once you own it, slowing price gains are making things feel more manageable. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says: “While housing affordability is low for potential first-time home buyers, slowing price appreciation and lower mortgage rates could help — so the dream of homeownership isn't boarded up just yet.” Bottom Line At the national level, home prices are not going down. And most experts forecast they’ll continue growing moderately moving forward. But prices vary a lot by local market. That’s where a trusted real estate agent comes into play. If you have questions about what’s happening with prices in our area, reach out.

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A Newly Built Home May Actually Be More Budget-Friendly

If you’re in the market to buy a home, there’s some exciting news for you. Many people assume that newly built homes are more expensive than existing ones (houses that have already been lived in), but that’s not always the case. In fact, exploring newly built homes can sometimes lead to more cost-effective options, especially today. Hard to believe, right? But the data doesn’t lie. Here are two key reasons working with your agent to look into new home construction could help you find a more budget-friendly option. Reason 1: Lower Median Prices for Newly Built Homes The median sales price for newly built homes is lower than the median sales price for existing homes today. This might seem surprising, but it’s true according to the latest data from the Census and the National Association of Realtors (NAR): Why is that? Builders are focused on building what they can sell. And right now, there’s a very real need for smaller and more affordable homes – so that’s what they’ve been bringing to the market. At the same time, there are also more newly built homes already on the market than there have been over the past few years, so builders are motivated to make sure they’re selling what they’ve got available before adding more. Reason 2: Attractive Incentives from Home Builders Another big reason to consider a newly built home is the range of incentives that many home builders are offering. Again, since builders are aiming to sell their current inventory, some are providing special deals to sweeten the pot for homebuyers. HousingWire explains today’s trend: “Overall, the usage of sales incentives was up to 61% in June, compared to 59% in May.” One of the most appealing incentives right now is how builders are able to offer competitive mortgage rates. They may also provide other incentives, such as covering closing costs, or offering free upgrades. Why This Matters to You Considering a newly built home could open up opportunities you hadn’t thought of before. With competitive pricing and attractive incentives, you might just find that a brand-new home is the most appealing option for you. Bottom Line Buying a home is a big decision, and it’s essential to consider all your options. By looking into newly built homes, you might find a perfect fit for your needs and your budget. Let’s explore the possibilities together. If you have any questions or want to see what’s available, feel free to reach out.

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