What's the Impact of Presidential Elections on the Housing Market?

It’s no surprise that the upcoming Presidential election might have you speculating about what’s ahead. And those unanswered thoughts can quickly spiral, causing fear and uncertainty to swirl through your mind. So, if you’ve been considering buying or selling a home this year, you’re probably curious about what the election might mean for the housing market – and if it’s still a good time to make your move. Here’s the good news that may surprise you: typically, Presidential elections have only had a small, temporary impact on the housing market. But your questions are definitely worth answering, so you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime. Here’s a look at decades of data that shows exactly what’s happened to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates in previous Presidential election cycles, so you can move forward with the facts as you weigh the pros and cons of your homeownership decision. Home Sales In the month leading up to a Presidential election, from October to November, there’s typically a slight slowdown in home sales (see graph below): Some consumers will simply wait it out before they make their purchase decision. However, it’s important to know this slowdown is small and temporary. Historically, home sales bounce right back and continue to rise the following year. In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows after 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales went up the year after the election, and it’s been happening consistently since the early 1990s (see chart below): Home Prices You may also be wondering about home prices. Do prices come down during election years? Not typically. As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist notes: “An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.” Home prices generally rise over time, regardless of an election cycle. So, based on what history shows, you can expect the current pricing trend in your local market to likely continue, barring any unusual market or economic circumstances. The latest data from NAR reveals that after 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year (see chart below): The one outlier was from 2008 to 2009, which was during the height of the housing market crash. That was certainly not a typical year. Today’s market, however, is much more resilient. And while prices are moderating nationally, they aren’t on an overall decline. Mortgage Rates And the third thing that’s likely on your mind is mortgage rates, since they impact your monthly payment if you’re financing a home. Looking at the last 11 Presidential election years, data from Freddie Mac shows mortgage rates decreased from July to November in 8 of them (see chart below): And this year, we’ve already started to see that happen. Most experts also forecast mortgage rates will ease slightly throughout the rest of 2024. If that happens – and all signs right now indicate it should – this year will continue to follow the trend of declining rates. So, if you’re looking to buy a home in the coming months, this could be great news for your purchasing power. What This Means for You What’s the big takeaway? While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are usually minimal. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says: “Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.” For most buyers and sellers, elections don’t have a major impact on their plans. Bottom Line While it’s natural to feel a bit uncertain during an election year, history shows the housing market remains strong and resilient. And this means you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime. For help navigating the market during this election cycle, let’s connect.

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Today’s Biggest Housing Market Myths

Have you ever heard the phrase: don’t believe everything you hear? That’s especially true if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in today’s housing market. There’s a lot of misinformation out there. And right now, making sure you have someone you can go to for trustworthy information is extra important. If you partner with a real estate agent, they can clear up some common misconceptions and reassure you by backing them up with research-driven facts. Here are just a few misconceptions they can help disprove. 1. I’ll Get a Better Deal Once Prices Crash If you’ve heard home prices are going to come crashing down, it’s time to look at what’s actually happening. While prices vary by local market, there’s a lot of data out there from numerous sources that shows a crash is not going to happen. Back in 2008, there was a dramatic oversupply of homes that led to prices crashing. Across the board, there’s an undersupply of homes for sale today. That makes this market a whole different scenario (see chart below): So, if you think waiting will score you a deal, know that data shows there’s not a crash on the horizon, and waiting isn’t going to pay off the way you’d hoped. 2. I Won’t Be Able To Find Anything To Buy If this nagging fear about finding the right home if you move is still holding you back, you probably haven’t talked with an expert real estate agent lately. Throughout the year, the supply of homes for sale has grown. Data from Realtor.com helps put this into context. While there are still fewer homes on the market than in a more normal year like 2019, inventory is still above where it was at this time last year (see graph below): So, if you’re remembering all that media coverage about record-low supply during the pandemic, you can rest a bit easier. While the market isn’t back to normal just yet, inventory is moving in a healthier direction. And that means as your options improve, you can let go of this now outdated myth because finding a home to buy won’t feel quite so impossible anymore. 3. I Have To Wait Until I Have Enough for a 20% Down Payment Many people still believe you need a 20% down payment to buy a home. To show just how widespread this myth is, Fannie Mae says: “Approximately 90% of consumers overstate or don’t know the minimum required down payment for a typical mortgage.” And if you look at the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), you can see the typical homeowner isn’t putting down as much as you might expect (see graph below): First-time homebuyers are typically only putting down 6%. That’s far less than the 20% so many people think they need. And if you’re looking at that graph and you’re more focused on how the number for repeat buyers is closer to 20%, here’s what you need to realize. That’s only because they have so much equity built up in their current house that can be used to make a larger down payment for their next move. This goes to show you don’t have to put 20% down, unless it’s specified by your loan type or lender. Many people put down a lot less. Not to mention, depending on the type of home loan you get, you may only need to put 3.5% or even 0% down. So, if you’re buying your first home, you likely don’t need nearly as much for your down payment as you may think. An Agent’s Role in Fighting Misconceptions If you put your move on pause because you heard one or more of these myths yourself, it’s time to talk to a trusted agent. An expert agent has more data and the facts, just like this, to reassure you and help break through any misconceptions that may be holding you back. Bottom Line If you have questions about what you’re hearing or reading, let’s connect. You deserve to have someone you can trust to get the facts.

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The Great Wealth Transfer: A New Era of Opportunity

In recent years, there’s been a significant shift in how wealth is distributed among generations. It’s called the Great Wealth Transfer. Historically, the transfer of wealth from one generation to the next was a more gradual process, often limited to smaller amounts of inheritance or family savings. But today, the scale has increased in a big way. As a recent article from Bankrate says: “The biggest wave of wealth in history is about to pass from Baby Boomers over the next 20 years, and it’s going to have major impacts on many facets of life. Called The Great Wealth Transfer, $84 trillion is poised to move from older Americans to Gen X and millennials. If it’s managed smartly, Americans will be able to grow their wealth and ensure their financial security.” Basically, as more Baby Boomers retire, sell businesses, or downsize their homes, more substantial assets are being passed down to younger generations. And this creates a powerful ripple effect that’ll continue over the next few decades. The graph below uses data from Merrill and Cerulli Associates to give you an idea of how much inherited money is set to change hands through 2045: Impact on the Housing Market One of the most immediate effects of this wealth transfer is on the housing market. Home affordability has been a concern for many aspiring buyers, especially in high-demand areas. The increase in generational wealth is expected to ease some of these challenges by providing future homeowners with greater financial resources. As assets are passed down through generations, buyers may find themselves in a better position to afford homes. Merrill talks about that benefit in a recent article: “While millennials face steep barriers . . . to buying a first home in many markets, ‘that’s a for-now story, not a forever story’ . . . The Great Wealth Transfer should enable more of them to become homeowners — or trade up or add a second home — either through inherited property or the funds for a down payment.” Impact on the Economy But the Great Wealth Transfer doesn’t just impact housing. It’s also going to provide a new avenue for entrepreneurial spirits to fuel economic growth. If someone is looking to start a business and they’re receiving funds like this, that money can used as the necessary capital to start a new company. This helps the next generation of innovators and business owners bring their ideas to life. Bottom Line While affordability remains a challenge in today’s housing market, the ongoing Great Wealth Transfer is poised to unlock new opportunities. As wealth is passed down and put to use, it’s expected to ease some of the barriers to homeownership and fuel other entrepreneurial endeavors. 

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