More Homes, Slower Price Growth – What It Means for You as a Buyer

There are more homes on the market right now than there have been in years – and that could be a game changer for you if you’re ready to buy. Let’s look at two reasons why. You Have More Options To Choose From An article from Realtor.com helps explain just how much the number of homes for sale has gone up this year: “There were 29.2% more homes actively for sale on a typical day in October compared with the same time in 2023, marking the twelfth consecutive month of annual inventory growth and the highest count since December 2019.” And while the number of homes on the market still isn’t quite back to where it was in the years leading up to the pandemic, this is definitely an improvement (see graph below): With more homes available for sale now, you have more options to choose from. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com, explains: “Though still lower than pre-pandemic, burgeoning home supply means buyers have more options . . .” That means you have a better chance of finding a house that meets your needs. It also means the buying process doesn’t have to feel quite as rushed, because more options on the market means you’ll likely face less competition from other buyers. Home Price Growth Is Slowing When there aren’t many homes for sale, buyers have to compete more fiercely for the ones that are available. That’s what happened a few years ago, and it’s what drove prices up so quickly. But now, the increasing number of homes on the market is causing home price growth to slow down (see graph below): In certain markets, the number of available homes has not only bounced back to normal, but has even surpassed pre-pandemic levels. In those areas, home price growth has slowed or stalled completely. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, explains: “Generally speaking, housing markets where active inventory has returned to pre-pandemic 2019 levels have seen home price growth soften or even decline outright from their 2022 peak.” Slower or stalled price growth could give you a better chance of finding something within your budget. As Dr. Anju Vajja, Deputy Director at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), says: “For the third consecutive month U.S. house prices showed little movement . . . relatively flat house prices may improve housing affordability.” But remember, inventory levels and home prices are going to vary by market. So, having a real estate agent who knows the local area can be a big advantage. They can help you understand the trends in your community, which can make a real difference in finding a home that fits your needs and budget. Bottom Line More housing options – and the slower home price growth they bring – can help you find and buy a home that works for your lifestyle and budget. So don’t hesitate to reach out if you want to talk about the growing number of choices you have right now.

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Why Home Sales Bounce Back After Presidential Elections

With the 2024 Presidential election fast approaching, you might be wondering what impact, if any, it’s having on the housing market. Let’s break it down. Election Years Bring a Temporary Slowdown In any given year, home sales slow down slightly in the fall. It’s a typical, seasonal trend. However, according to data from BTIG, in election years there’s usually a slightly larger dip in home sales in the month leading up to Election Day (see graph below): Why? Uncertainty. Many consumers hold off on making major decisions or purchases while they wait to see how the election will play out. It’s a pattern that’s shown up time and time again, and it's particularly apparent for buyers and sellers in the housing market. This year is no different. A recent survey from Redfin found that 23% of potential first-time homebuyers said they’re waiting until after the election to buy. That’s nearly a quarter of first-time buyers hitting the pause button, likely due to the same feelings of uncertainty. Home Sales Bounce Back After the Election The good news is these delayed sales aren’t lost forever—they’re just postponed. History shows sales tend to rebound after the election is over. In fact, home sales have actually increased 82% of the time in the year after the election (see chart below): That’s because once the election dust settles, buyers and sellers have a sense of what’s ahead and generally feel more confident moving forward with their decisions. And that leads to a boost in home sales. What To Expect in 2025 If history is any indicator, that means more homes will sell next year. And based on the latest forecasts, that’s exactly what you should expect. As the graph below shows, the housing market is on pace to sell a total of 4.6 million homes this year, and projections are for 5.2 million total sales next year (see graph below): And that aligns with the typical pattern of post-election rebounds. So, while it might feel like the market is slowing down right now, it’s more of a temporary dip rather than a long-term trend. As has been the case before, once the election uncertainty passes, buyers and sellers will return to the market. Bottom Line It’s important to remember that while election years often bring a short-term slowdown in the housing market, the pause is usually temporary. Those sales are not lost. Data shows home sales typically increase the year after a Presidential election, and current forecasts indicate 2025 will be no different. If you’re waiting for a clearer picture before making a move, just know that the market is expected to pick up speed in the months ahead.

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What To Expect from Mortgage Rates and Home Prices in 2025

Curious about where the housing market is headed in 2025? The good news is that experts are offering some promising forecasts, especially when it comes to two key factors that directly affect your decisions: mortgage rates and home prices. Whether you're thinking of buying or selling, here’s a look at what the experts are saying and how it might impact your move. Mortgage Rates Are Forecast To Come Down One of the biggest factors likely affecting your plans is mortgage rates, and the forecast looks positive. After rising dramatically in recent years, experts project rates will ease slightly throughout the course of 2025 (see graph below): While that decline won’t be a straight line down, the overall trend should continue over the next year. Expect a few bumps along the way, because the trajectory of rates will depend on new economic data and inflation numbers as they’re released. But don’t get too hung up on those blips and reactions from the market as they happen. Focus on the bigger picture. Lower mortgage rates mean improving affordability. As rates come down, your monthly mortgage payment decreases, giving you more flexibility in what you can afford if you buy a home. This shift will likely bring more buyers and sellers back into the market, though. As Charlie Dougherty, Director and Senior Economist at Wells Fargo, explains: “Lower financing costs will likely boost demand by pulling affordability-crunched buyers off of the sidelines.” As that happens, both inventory and competition among buyers will ramp back up. The takeaway? You can get ahead of that competition now. Lean on your agent to make sure you understand how the shifts in rates are impacting demand in your area. Home Price Projections Show Modest Growth While mortgage rates are expected to come down slightly, home prices are forecast to rise—but at a much more moderate pace than the market has seen in recent years. Experts are saying home prices will grow by an average of about 2.5% nationally in 2025 (see graph below): This is far more manageable than the rapid price increases of previous years, which saw double-digit percentage growth in some markets. What’s behind this ongoing increase in prices? Again, it has to do with demand. As more buyers return to the market, demand will rise – but so will supply as sellers feel less rate-locked. More buyers in markets with inventory that’s still below the norm will put upward pressure on prices. But with more homes likely to be listed, supply will help keep price growth in check. This means that while prices will rise, they’ll do so at a healthier, more sustainable pace. Of course, these national trends may not reflect exactly what’s happening in your local market. Some areas might see faster price growth, while others could see slower gains. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, says: “Even if the average national home price forecast for 2025 is correct, it’s possible that some regional housing markets could see mild home price declines, while some markets could still see elevated appreciation. That has been, after all, the case this year.” Even the few markets that may see flat or slightly lower prices in 2025 have had so much appreciation in recent years – it may not have a big impact. That’s why it’s important to work with a local real estate expert who can give you a clear picture of what’s happening where you’re looking to buy or sell. Bottom Line With mortgage rates expected to ease and home prices projected to rise at a more moderate pace, 2025 is shaping up to be a more promising year for both buyers and sellers. If you have any questions about how these trends might impact your plans, let’s connect. That way you’ve got someone to help you navigate the market and make the most of the opportunities ahead.

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